The COVID-19 in Portugal

A brief summary of the COVID-19 situation in Portugal.

Xinying Xu https://example.com/norajones
08-28-2021

Introduction

Since December 2019,the outbreak began. Since that, the disease has spread worldwide, leading to ongoing pandemic. Millions died, but we’re still not sure what caused it yet. This blog has collected the newest data for readers to explore, and we meanly focus the COVID-19 situation in Portugal, which located on the Iberian Peninsula, in south-western Europe.

This blog aimed to analyse the total cases data and the coverage of vaccination at all kinds of groups.

Data description

The dataset contains the variables about the accumulated confirmed amount, accumulated recovered amount amount and accumulated dead amount, from the beginning of the outbreak to the present. You can find the data from the github of JOHNS HOPKINS, which supports the worldwide data of COVID-19, in this blog, I only analyse Portugal. And after wangling data, I use tsibble::difference to add some variables holds in information of the new daily cases: new confirmed, new recovered and new dead amount.

Besides, the tidycovid19 package can be found in joachim-gassen’s github, and while the combined data frame generated by download_merged_data() aggregates data at the country-day level, some functions also provide sub-country level data on request.

The vaccine data is downloaded from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), which covers in adults (aged 18 years and above) across EU/EEA countries. The variables include: total doses received, number of first doses administered, number of second doses administered and number of administered doses classified as ‘unspecified’.

The table below records the cases which related the COVID-19, the trend illustrates the cases trend from 2020-01-22 to 2021-08-27. And since there are missing value in Accumulated recovered, so the newest data shows that accumulated recovered data is 0, which is not reliable, just ignore it, we only focus on the overall trend. Besides, it’s designed to explore data by yourself. Let’s try!

Exploratory data analysis

The map about the spread of the virus across the Europe

Let’s have a quick look at the map, it’s the situation about average over 7 days, most area experience about 1000 new confirmed cases, which is not a good signal. while situation in the middle of Europe is much more better, about 200 cases in the past 7 days.

The total of COVID-19 cases in Portugal

It can seen directly from the plot, although there are still confirmed cases everyday, corresponding with a high recovery rate, which must be related with popularization of vaccines. In addition, we might occur missing value, the value of the new confirmed variable suddenly missed since 4th Aug, that will result in errors when calculating.

In addition, there’s a big gap since 20th May 2020, the new recovery rate dropped to 0, but after that, it rose slowly back to normal. At the beginning of this year, death rate increased at a peak, but soon afterwards the disease slowed down until now.

The popularitation of COVID-19 vaccine in Portugal

This plot below shows data reported at national level. It can be seen that the group which are above 60 years old, are more willing to get vaccinated, the vaccination completion rate is higher than other group. However, the young group which age range is 18 to 24, only 39.5% of them have completed the vaccination. The elders believe on the vaccine effectiveness. In order to easy to explore, I adjust the unit of probability to 100%.

Numerical summary

Table2: Summary of COVID-19 cases in Portugal
The average of new daily dead is not high in recent days.
Date Issue Total Mean (new cases/day)
2021-08-27 Accumulated comfirmed 1030,791 1,764
2021-08-27 Accumulated recovery 912,620 1,565
2021-08-27 Accumulated dead 17,703 30
Table3: Summary of COVID-19 cases probability in Portugal
The recovery rate is pretty high which is a good signal.
Date

Issue

Value
(%)
2021-08-27 Comfirmed rate 12.02
2021-08-27 Recovery rate 88.54
2021-08-27 Death rate 1.72
Table4: Summary of COVID-19 vaccine coverage in all kinds of groups
The vaccine coverage is high for the age range is above 50 years old, compared with the young group.
Group Vaccine coverage (%)
Age18_24 39.51
Age25_49 73.47
Age50_59 90.25
Age60-69 95.01
Age70_79 100.00
Age80+ 97.66
Table5: Summary of COVID-19 effects in Portugal.
Based on 2 aspects: All of the patients who in the hospital are ill critically.
Issue Value
Total hospital patients 544
Total ICU patients 544
Length of lockdown 314

According to these numerical statistical tables, we can know that:

Citation

ECDC and EMA update on COVID-19. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/ecdc-and-ema-update-covid-19

COVID-19 in children and the role of school settings in transmission – second update. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/covid-19-children-and-role-school-settings-transmission-second-update